What Builders Are Seeing in Composite Decking
Every quarter, William Blair checks in with deck builders, contractors, and distributors to get a pulse on the composite decking industry. The latest survey from the 4Q 2024 revealed builders are cautiously optimistic about the rest of the year. Here’s what they found.
Business Growth and Market Conditions
Forty-five percent of the builders/contractors surveyed said business held steady in the 4th quarter 2024. In addition, they saw double-digit quarterly growth (year-over-year).
With colder months slowing down outdoor projects, many builders noted a drop in demand, though they expect things to pick up again in the spring. Others pointed out that the economy and recent election slowed consumer demand.
Wood vs. Composite: What’s Selling?
Composite decking continues to dominate, but many builders are watching how wood sales are shifting. While more than half of respondents said they haven’t noticed any major changes, about a third actually saw a decline in wood sales.
What Customers Are Choosing
One clear trend in the market is that homeowners are becoming more budget-conscious. More than half of the builders surveyed said they’re seeing customers choose lower-priced composite decking options. This means that while composite decking is still the go-to choice, people are looking for ways to keep costs down.
When it comes to brands, the competition is tight. Trex and TimberTech/AZEK were the most popular choices among those surveyed (44.83% and 48.28% respectively), followed by Deckorators and Fiberon (29.31% and 17.24% respectively). However, the survey suggests that no single brand dominates the market.
Project Timelines and Inventory
Despite economic uncertainty for some builders, most projects are staying on track. Nearly two-thirds of builders said at least 95% of their projects are being completed on time. However, some delays are happening due to rising interest rates and labor shortages, making it tougher to keep schedules running smoothly. Slightly more than 12% had projects cancelled.
On the inventory side, most builders are comfortable with their stock levels. While a few reported having either too much or too little, the majority felt their inventory was right where it needed to be.
Looking Ahead to 2025
What does the future hold for the composite decking industry? Builders are cautiously optimistic. While some expect strong growth, most predict moderate increases in sales.
Final Thoughts
Overall, the composite decking industry remains steady. While some economic and seasonal challenges have slowed things down, composite decking continues to hold strong against traditional wood. Homeowners are looking for quality products but are becoming more price-sensitive. Meanwhile, builders are keeping a close eye on supply chains, competition, and price trends as they prepare for the year ahead.
As the market evolves, builders will need to stay flexible, adjust to new customer demands, and be ready to meet whatever challenges come next.