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According to the William Blair Composite Decking Survey 1st Quarter 2025, the average growth on the quarter was 4.4%, down slightly from 5.2+% last quarter, yet 71% of the respondents grew, 16% were flat and 13% saw negative growth. The overarching them was uncertainty, particularly related to tariffs.
When asked what is driving business conditions, one respondent said “Inflation and tariffs have people a little more cautious.” Another noted interest rates were keeping a lid on the industry.
A third person said "lower consumer sentiment is driving trade down to lower-priced composites.” In fact, nearly 55% of those surveyed replied they were seeing a trade down to lower price point products, while 40% said they did not. Respondents noted they were turning to TimberTech/AZEK (38%), Trex and Deckorators (37% respectively), Fiberon (9%) and 34% were using other brands.
Other results indicated nearly 50% of those surveyed said their backlog hasn’t changed since last quarter, while 40% said theirs was down. Builders are expecting to see more than 7% growth from the first quarter, despite tariff risk.
The survey asked builders their input regarding the James Hardie/AZEK potential merger. Early concerns were mostly centered around the impact to the distribution landscape, AZEK getting lost as part of Hardie, and the price being increased.
As one respondent said, “No surprise to us. It fits the recent consolidation trend in the industry.” Another replied, “The main thing to keep an eye on is whether or not AZEK decking becomes a lower priority under James Hardie.” A third mentioned, “There will be more opportunity for non-AZEK players in decking and railing.”
